Retail Sales & Consumer Sentiment
Latest data: August 1, 2026 · Updated automatically from official sources
Consumer spending drives roughly two-thirds of U.S. GDP. This page pairs what people say (the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey) with what they actually do (the Census Bureau’s monthly retail sales). A widening gap between the two — gloomy sentiment alongside resilient spending, or the reverse — is one of the more telling signals in the consumer data.
Latest readings
- Retail Sales was $773.9B as of August 2026, up 1.2% from the prior reading and up 6.0% from a year earlier — the highest reading since records in this series began in 1992.
- Retail Sales was up 6.0% year over year in August 2026, compared with 5.0% in the prior period and 4.7% a year earlier.
- Consumer Sentiment was 55.2 as of July 2026, up 11.5% from the prior reading and down 10.5% from a year earlier.
- Personal Saving Rate was 3.0% as of July 2026, up 0.4 percentage points from the prior reading, versus 4.5% a year earlier.
Retail sales growth
Retail sales level
Consumer sentiment
Recent readings
| Period | Retail sales (YoY) | Change | Sentiment index |
|---|---|---|---|
| August 2026 | 6.0% | +0.98 pp | — |
| July 2026 | 5.0% | -1.79 pp | 55.2 |
| June 2026 | 6.8% | -0.41 pp | 49.5 |
| May 2026 | 7.2% | +2.16 pp | 44.8 |
| April 2026 | 5.1% | +0.83 pp | 49.8 |
| March 2026 | 4.2% | +0.07 pp | 53.3 |
| February 2026 | 4.2% | +0.90 pp | 56.6 |
| January 2026 | 3.3% | +0.84 pp | 56.4 |
| December 2025 | 2.4% | -0.78 pp | 52.9 |
| November 2025 | 3.2% | 0.00 pp | 51.0 |
| October 2025 | 3.2% | -0.93 pp | 53.6 |
| September 2025 | 4.1% | -0.59 pp | 55.1 |
| August 2025 | 4.7% | — | 58.2 |
Key statistics
| Indicator | Latest | Year ago | 5-yr avg | Long-run avg | Record high | Record low | Data since |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales (monthly) | $773.9B | $730.0B | $692.1B | $388.8B | $773.9B (Aug 2026) | $158.6B (Mar 1992) | 1992 |
| Retail Sales (YoY) | 6.0% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 51.9% (Apr 2021) | -19.7% (Apr 2020) | 1993 |
| Consumer Sentiment | 55.2 | 61.7 | 63.2 | 84.4 | 112.0 (Jan 2000) | 44.8 (May 2026) | 1952 |
| Personal Saving Rate | 3.0% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 8.4% | 31.8% (Apr 2020) | 1.4% (Jul 2005) | 1959 |
Retail sales: nominal, not real
The Census Bureau’s retail sales report measures dollar sales at retailers and restaurants. It is not adjusted for inflation, so a 4% rise in sales during a year with 3% inflation means only about 1% more stuff was actually bought. The first chart plots retail sales growth against CPI inflation for exactly this reason: when the green line sits above the red one, real (inflation-adjusted) spending is growing.
The headline figure includes gasoline stations, auto dealers and food services. Analysts often focus on the “control group,” which excludes autos, gasoline, building materials and restaurants, because it feeds directly into the GDP consumption estimate.
Consumer sentiment
The University of Michigan surveys several hundred households by phone and online each month, asking how their finances have changed, whether they expect business conditions to improve, and whether it is a good time to buy big-ticket items. The answers are combined into an index set to 100 in early 1966. Sentiment is strongly influenced by inflation, gas prices and news headlines, so it can fall sharply even when spending holds up. A preliminary reading is released mid-month and a final reading at month-end.
Release schedule
The advance monthly retail sales report is published around the middle of each month, covering the previous month, and is revised in the following two releases. Because it arrives early and covers a large share of consumer spending, it is one of the most market-moving U.S. data releases.
Frequently asked questions
Are retail sales adjusted for inflation?
No. Retail sales are reported in current dollars. To estimate real growth, compare retail sales growth with the CPI inflation rate, as the first chart on this page does.
Does low consumer sentiment predict a recession?
Not reliably on its own. Sentiment has fallen sharply many times without a recession following, especially during bursts of inflation. It is more informative when spending data start to weaken too.
Related data
Data are retrieved automatically from the original statistical agencies (via the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FRED database) and may be revised by the source. Year-over-year changes are calculated by econHQ. See About & methodology for details.