Treasury Yields & the Yield Curve
Latest data: September 17, 2026 · Updated automatically from official sources
The yield curve plots Treasury yields across maturities. Normally longer-term bonds pay more than short-term ones to compensate investors for tying up their money. When the curve inverts — short-term yields above long-term — investors are pricing in future rate cuts, usually because they expect the economy to weaken. The 10-year minus 2-year spread is the most widely quoted measure of the curve’s shape.
Latest readings
- 10-Year Yield was 5.01% as of Sep 16, 2026, up 0.01 percentage points from the prior reading, versus 4.04% a year earlier — the highest since July 2007.
- 2-Year Yield was 4.74% as of Sep 16, 2026, up 0.07 percentage points from the prior reading, versus 3.51% a year earlier — the highest since July 2024.
- 10Y–2Y Spread was 0.27 pp as of Sep 17, 2026, unchanged from the prior reading, versus 0.54 pp a year earlier — the lowest since March 2025.
- High-Yield Spread was 2.70% as of Sep 17, 2026, unchanged from the prior reading, versus 2.79% a year earlier.
10-year vs. 2-year Treasury yields
10Y–2Y spread since 1976
High-yield corporate bond spread
Yield curve inversion history
As of September 17, 2026, the 10Y–2Y spread is 0.27 percentage points — the curve is positively sloped (not inverted). The most recent inversion ended in September 2024, about 24 months ago.
| Inversion began | Ended | Length | Deepest | Deepest on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2022 | Sep 2024 | 26 mo | -1.08 pp | Jul 3, 2023 |
| Jun 2006 | Jun 2007 | 12 mo | -0.19 pp | Nov 15, 2006 |
| Dec 2005 | Mar 2006 | 3 mo | -0.16 pp | Feb 23, 2006 |
| Feb 2000 | Dec 2000 | 11 mo | -0.52 pp | Apr 7, 2000 |
| May 1998 | Jul 1998 | 2 mo | -0.07 pp | Jun 25, 1998 |
| Mar 1990 | Mar 1990 | 1 mo | -0.14 pp | Mar 20, 1990 |
| Dec 1988 | Nov 1989 | 11 mo | -0.45 pp | Mar 28, 1989 |
| Sep 1980 | Jul 1982 | 22 mo | -1.70 pp | Dec 17, 1980 |
| Aug 1978 | May 1980 | 20 mo | -2.41 pp | Mar 20, 1980 |
Recent readings
| Period | 10Y–2Y spread (month-end) | Change | 10-yr yield | 2-yr yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2026 | 0.27 pp | -0.14 pp | 5.01% | 4.74% |
| Aug 2026 | 0.41 pp | -0.06 pp | 4.75% | 4.34% |
| Jul 2026 | 0.47 pp | +0.17 pp | 4.75% | 4.28% |
| Jun 2026 | 0.30 pp | -0.17 pp | 4.44% | 4.14% |
| May 2026 | 0.47 pp | -0.05 pp | 4.45% | 3.98% |
| Apr 2026 | 0.52 pp | +0.01 pp | 4.40% | 3.88% |
| Mar 2026 | 0.51 pp | -0.08 pp | 4.30% | 3.79% |
| Feb 2026 | 0.59 pp | -0.15 pp | 3.97% | 3.38% |
| Jan 2026 | 0.74 pp | +0.03 pp | 4.26% | 3.52% |
| Dec 2025 | 0.71 pp | +0.16 pp | 4.18% | 3.47% |
| Nov 2025 | 0.55 pp | +0.04 pp | 4.02% | 3.47% |
| Oct 2025 | 0.51 pp | -0.05 pp | 4.11% | 3.60% |
| Sep 2025 | 0.56 pp | — | 4.16% | 3.60% |
Key statistics
| Indicator | Latest | Year ago | 5-yr avg | Long-run avg | Record high | Record low | Data since |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-Year Yield | 5.01% | 4.04% | 3.80% | 5.80% | 15.84% (Sep 1981) | 0.52% (Aug 2020) | 1962 |
| 2-Year Yield | 4.74% | 3.51% | 3.74% | 4.95% | 16.95% (Sep 1981) | 0.09% (Feb 2021) | 1976 |
| 10Y–2Y Spread | 0.27 pp | 0.54 pp | 0.06 pp | 0.84 pp | 2.91 pp (Feb 2011) | -2.41 pp (Mar 1980) | 1976 |
| High-Yield Spread | 2.70% | 2.79% | 3.12% | 3.12% | 4.61% (Apr 2025) | 2.59% (Jan 2025) | 2023 |
Why an inverted yield curve matters
An inverted 10-year/2-year curve has preceded every U.S. recession since the late 1970s. The logic: the 2-year yield tracks where investors expect the Fed’s policy rate to be soon, while the 10-year reflects expectations over a much longer horizon. When the 2-year is higher, markets are effectively forecasting that today’s tight policy will have to be reversed. Inversions also squeeze bank profits, because banks typically borrow short and lend long, which can tighten credit.
The signal comes with caveats. The lag between inversion and recession has varied from several months to around two years, and recessions have often started after the curve has already un-inverted (“re-steepened”). The inversion history table above lists each episode in the data.
Credit spreads: the corporate bond market’s fear gauge
The high-yield spread measures how much more interest below-investment-grade (“junk”) companies pay than the Treasury on comparable bonds. When investors grow worried about defaults, they demand more compensation and the spread widens — sharply so in 2008 and in March 2020. Narrow spreads signal easy financing conditions and investor confidence.
About the data
Treasury yields are the U.S. Treasury’s daily constant-maturity yields, which interpolate a smooth curve from the prices of actively traded Treasury securities. Yields are quoted on a bond-equivalent basis. Days when markets are closed have no observation.
Frequently asked questions
Is the yield curve inverted right now?
Check the 10Y–2Y spread at the top of this page: a negative number means the curve is inverted; a positive number means it has a normal upward slope.
Does every yield curve inversion lead to a recession?
Not every one, and the timing varies widely. It is one of the more reliable single indicators historically, but economists use it alongside labor-market, credit and spending data.
Related data
Data are retrieved automatically from the original statistical agencies (via the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FRED database) and may be revised by the source. Year-over-year changes are calculated by econHQ. See About & methodology for details.