Leading Economic Indicators
Latest data: September 17, 2026 · Updated automatically from official sources
Leading indicators are data series that have historically turned before the overall economy does. No single one is reliable on its own, but when several flash warning signs at once, the risk of a downturn rises. This dashboard tracks six widely watched leading signals using official data, and the scorecard below summarises whether each is currently pointing toward expansion or caution.
Latest readings
- 10Y–2Y Yield Spread was 0.27 pp as of Sep 17, 2026, unchanged from the prior reading, versus 0.54 pp a year earlier — the lowest since March 2025.
- Building Permits was 1.39M as of August 2026, down 2.7% from the prior reading and up 3.5% from a year earlier.
- Initial Jobless Claims was 196,000 as of Sep 12, 2026, down 4.9% from the prior reading and down 24.3% from a year earlier.
- Consumer Sentiment was 55.2 as of July 2026, up 11.5% from the prior reading and down 10.5% from a year earlier.
- High-Yield Spread was 2.70% as of Sep 17, 2026, unchanged from the prior reading, versus 2.79% a year earlier.
- S&P 500 was up 15.7% year over year as of Sep 17, 2026, compared with 14.3% in the prior period and 17.1% a year earlier.
Yield curve: 10-year minus 2-year
Building permits
Initial jobless claims
Consumer sentiment
High-yield credit spread
Leading indicator scorecard
1 of 6 indicators are currently flashing a caution signal under the rules described below. Most leading signals are consistent with continued expansion.
| Indicator | Latest | Reading | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yield curve (10Y–2Y) | 0.27 pp | Positively sloped | Expansion |
| Building permits | 1.39M | Up 3.5% from a year earlier | Expansion |
| Consumer sentiment | 55.2 | Down 10.5% from a year earlier | Caution |
| S&P 500 | 7,637.8 | Up 15.7% from a year earlier | Expansion |
| Initial jobless claims | 203,250 (4-wk avg) | 8% above its 52-week low | Expansion |
| High-yield credit spread | 2.70% | 0.10 pp above its 1-year low | Expansion |
Key statistics
| Indicator | Latest | Year ago | 5-yr avg | Long-run avg | Record high | Record low | Data since |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10Y–2Y Yield Spread | 0.27 pp | 0.54 pp | 0.06 pp | 0.84 pp | 2.91 pp (Feb 2011) | -2.41 pp (Mar 1980) | 1976 |
| Building Permits (ann.) | 1.39M | 1.35M | 1.53M | 1.37M | 2.42M (Dec 1972) | 513K (Mar 2009) | 1960 |
| Initial Jobless Claims | 196,000 | 259,000 | 222,307 | 359,168 | 6,137,000 (Apr 2020) | 162,000 (Nov 1968) | 1967 |
| Consumer Sentiment | 55.2 | 61.7 | 63.2 | 84.4 | 112.0 (Jan 2000) | 44.8 (May 2026) | 1952 |
| High-Yield Spread | 2.70% | 2.79% | 3.12% | 3.12% | 4.61% (Apr 2025) | 2.59% (Jan 2025) | 2023 |
| S&P 500 (YoY) | 15.7% | 17.1% | 13.3% | 14.0% | 74.8% (Mar 2021) | -21.0% (Dec 2022) | 2017 |
Why these six indicators?
- The yield curve — when short-term Treasury yields rise above long-term yields (an “inversion”), investors are betting the Fed will have to cut rates because growth will weaken. An inverted 10-year/2-year curve has preceded every U.S. recession since the late 1970s, though with long and variable lags and at least one false alarm.
- Building permits — housing is highly rate-sensitive and turns early in the cycle.
- Initial jobless claims — the timeliest read on layoffs, published weekly.
- Consumer sentiment — households that feel worse off tend to cut discretionary spending.
- High-yield credit spreads — the extra yield investors demand to hold risky corporate debt; spreads widen when lenders expect more defaults.
- Stock prices — markets discount expected future profits and often fall ahead of downturns.
How the scorecard works
For each indicator, econHQ compares the latest reading with its own recent history using simple, transparent rules: the yield curve is flagged when it is inverted; permits, sentiment and stock prices are flagged when they are below their level a year earlier; jobless claims are flagged when the latest four readings average more than 15% above their low of the past year; and credit spreads are flagged when they are at least one percentage point above their one-year low. These rules are a reading aid, not a forecast — every past recession has looked a little different.
What about the Conference Board LEI?
The best-known composite, The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index, combines ten components including several of those above. It is a proprietary product and is not freely redistributed, and the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s free leading index for the U.S. (distributed through FRED) was discontinued in 2020. Rather than show stale data, econHQ tracks the publicly available components directly.
Frequently asked questions
Is an inverted yield curve a reliable recession signal?
It has a strong track record, but the lag between inversion and recession has ranged from several months to around two years, and the curve sometimes inverts without a recession following. It is best read together with other indicators.
What is the difference between leading and lagging indicators?
Leading indicators tend to change direction before the economy as a whole (permits, claims, the yield curve). Lagging indicators, such as the unemployment rate and core inflation, typically change only after the economy has already turned.
Related data
Data are retrieved automatically from the original statistical agencies (via the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FRED database) and may be revised by the source. Year-over-year changes are calculated by econHQ. See About & methodology for details.